Gold Pulls Back While Inflation Worries Loom; Tata Motors Profits Slide
In today’s market briefing, investors grapple with a mix of political and economic signals after a sharp rally in U.S. stocks and gold reaching all‑time highs.
Gold Retreats
U.S. gold futures hit a record $3,534.10 per ounce before surrendering much of the gain after the White House signaled an executive order clarifying gold-bar tariff policy reuters.com. December futures steadied at $3,454.1 per ounce, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed to about $57 from over $100 earlier reuters.com. The pullback came amid reports that some Swiss refineries halted shipments to the United States because of tariff uncertainty reuters.com.
Stocks Brace for Inflation Test
The S&P 500 finished the week up more than 8 % in 2025 and roughly 28 % above its April low reuters.com. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley warn that valuations — now above 22× forward earnings versus a long‑term average of 15.8 — and seasonal weakness could trigger a correction reuters.com. Investors are watching Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report, expected to show a 2.8 % annual rise, as a surprise upside reading could curb expectations for rate cuts reuters.com. Uncertainty about sweeping new tariffs that lifted average duties to a century high adds another headwind reuters.com.
Tata Motors Earnings Slump
India’s Tata Motors reported a 63 % decline in quarterly profit — its fourth straight drop — after U.S. tariffs and weak sales shaved £254 million off earnings reuters.com. The automaker kept its forecast for luxury unit Jaguar Land Rover thanks to a U.S.-UK trade deal reuters.com. Net profit fell to ₹39.24 billion from ₹105.14 billion a year earlier; revenue slid 2.5 % reuters.com. Tata expects demand to remain challenging but sees improvement once tariff clarity emerges and festive demand picks up reuters.com.
Technical Analysis Highlights
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USD/JPY: The yen weakened after President Trump reaffirmed plans for 25 % tariffs on Japanese and South Korean goods, pushing the dollar up 0.38 % to ¥146.625 reuters.com. Technical indicators show positive momentum for the pair.
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GBP/USD: Sterling trades around $1.3308, up 0.1 % but largely flat as investors wait for the Bank of England’s decision. The pound is roughly 0.5 % higher than a week ago reuters.com. The CCI indicator suggests neutral to downward pressure.
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BTC/USD: Bitcoin rallied to about $101,330 after a broad U.S.-UK trade deal, logging a 4.7 % daily gain and regaining positive territory reuters.com. Analysts say the move back above $100,000 signals that momentum could carry toward previous highs reuters.com.
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WTI Crude: Oil prices fell for a sixth consecutive session on hopes that a Trump–Putin meeting might lead to a ceasefire in Ukraine; U.S. crude slid 0.7 % to $63.88 a barrel, while Brent dropped to $66.43 reuters.com. This decline comes despite bullish MACD signals.
Key Economic Events
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U.S. Treasury Auctions: The U.S. Treasury will auction 3‑month and 6‑month bills at 15:30 GMT, a gauge of short‑term funding appetite.
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Italy’s Trade Balance & CPI: Italy’s statistics office releases the trade balance at 09:00 GMT and CPI data at 08:00 GMT. July data showed EU‑harmonised inflation slowing to 1.7 % annually reuters.com.
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Japan M2 Money Supply: The Bank of Japan’s M2+CD money supply report at 23:50 GMT provides insight into credit conditions.
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UK BRC Like‑For‑Like Retail Sales: The British Retail Consortium’s report at 23:01 GMT offers an early look at consumer spending trends.
Conclusion
Markets are caught between optimism and caution. Gold has retreated from record peaks amid tariff uncertainty, and equity investors are bracing for inflation data that could derail the rally. Tata Motors’ results underscore the toll of tariffs on corporate earnings. Technically, USD/JPY remains buoyant, GBP/USD is range‑bound, bitcoin has reclaimed momentum, and oil continues to slide. Upcoming economic releases will likely set the tone for the week.